Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 3.969349 4.683022 5.474200 6.414365 7.499048 8.709057 10.158934
2025-07-20 2.955891 3.932235 5.133821 6.711851 8.719006 11.175051 14.394886
2025-07-27 2.323544 3.423228 4.900840 7.008413 9.909731 13.731382 19.107667
2025-08-03 1.820052 2.935055 4.553094 7.031470 10.680486 15.793129 23.417905
2025-08-10 1.403125 2.459312 4.103594 6.789264 10.987080 17.196400 26.938573
2025-08-17 1.082082 2.051099 3.661738 6.452658 11.058637 18.212160 29.954556
2025-08-24 0.882904 1.797568 3.410674 6.357770 11.461285 19.733782 33.857178
2025-08-31 0.733252 1.597066 3.207394 6.297302 11.889745 21.314302 37.985790
2025-09-07 0.653912 1.512342 3.192969 6.559154 12.889511 23.920718 44.035334
2025-09-14 0.563174 1.383507 3.070056 6.594713 13.477163 25.868307 49.136988
2025-09-21 0.486453 1.267140 2.949670 6.611695 14.022118 27.780383 54.337946
2025-09-28 0.421144 1.161577 2.831971 6.612382 14.527336 29.657002 59.630535
2025-10-05 0.403878 1.170029 2.967176 7.171292 16.229202 33.971137 69.888615
2025-10-12 0.364809 1.115414 2.952644 7.407458 17.306279 37.208439 78.439419
2025-10-19 0.333494 1.073960 2.961594 7.697052 18.530050 40.850380 88.097496
2025-10-26 0.291436 0.992227 2.857827 7.709593 19.153305 43.343454 95.709274
2025-11-02 0.242887 0.878391 2.651002 7.441814 19.114595 44.464893 100.649939
2025-11-09 0.198488 0.764236 2.419959 7.074338 18.794424 44.950786 104.309262
2025-11-16 0.170701 0.695657 2.299871 6.970628 19.080588 46.764663 110.907978
2025-11-23 0.148171 0.638311 2.200308 6.904688 19.447882 48.786785 118.116834
2025-11-30 0.138416 0.624300 2.227022 7.189279 20.724012 52.973731 130.401080
2025-12-07 0.123340 0.585626 2.170075 7.227902 21.372245 55.764770 139.779127
2025-12-14 0.109656 0.548151 2.109477 7.246350 21.969127 58.486111 149.210808